Model Baseline and Delay Definition
For Topic 26-OS2, should applicants compare the predictive model against a specific baseline and use a preferred definition of “freight delay,” such as travel time increase, missed delivery window, dwell time, congestion probability, or route deviation?
Nakita Van Kirk
shared this idea
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Lisa Randall
commented
USDOT does not mandate a specific baseline methodology or a single preferred definition for "freight delay." Applicants can define “delay” based on travel time increases, route deviation, dwell times or another proposed metric, but the approach must ultimately demonstrate that it is capable of achieving a "baseline corridor-level prediction accuracy of at least 80% for short-term (30–60 minute) congestion and delay forecasts". Applicants should also define and provide a rationale for the selected metrics, and their evaluation criteria (e.g., accuracy, timeliness, completeness)" necessary to conduct preliminary benchmarking for the proposed AI model.